When asked what his targets are for the next State Election, new opposition leader Brad Battin said Pakenham first, followed by numerous South East seats and the upcoming Werribee by-election may prove how key this growth corridor will be in 2026.
Recently, Battin sat down with Sky News, and he was asked where he will win seats in the 2026 election.
The affluent inner east was not first to mind as Labor over the last several elections has chipped away at the Liberal Party’s traditional heartland.
Instead, the first words out of Battin’s mouth were “growth corridors”.
“Pakenham, they’re desperate for a change,” he said in the interview.
“Hastings, Bass, the Narre Warren seats, they need to see change out there.”
The inner city will still be crucial for Battin to both retain seats from Kew to Brighton as well as recapture seats like Box Hill and Bayswater.
But a significant offensive in growth corridors, Battin’s own South East most of all, may prove pivotal.
Labor’s hold of the South East has only increased with consistent swings toward red in the last three elections through Dandenong, Narre Warren and Cranbourne.
Labor picked up a further two seats with Jordan Crugnale taking Bass in 2018 and retaining it in 2022 while Emma Vulin became the first MP for the new seat of Pakenham in 2022.
But there is one bulwark that has prevented a Labor wall stretching from Oakleigh to Pakenham: Brad Battin himself.
In the 2018 State Election, Battin only narrowly won his then seat of Gembrook against Labor contender, now upper house MP, Michael Galea with a 0.79 per cent margin.
In 2022, the Liberal Party’s overall vote still went down, yet Battin not only held the line but gained a 4.17 per cent margin in his new seat of Berwick.
Battin’s defence in 2022 may inform his general offensive to try and break Labor’s decade-long rule in Victoria.
Pakenham and Bass are certainly in the Liberal Party sights as both are held by Labor with less than half a per cent of the two-party preferred vote in 2022, 0.39 and 0.24 per cent respectively.
The wall of Narre Warren North, Narre Warren South and Cranbourne will be harder to breach, all holding firm with an 8 per cent margin.
The next election may not be until November next year but the Werribee by-election on 8 February may prove influential in how hard the Liberal Party pushes in the South East.
Covering the growth areas of Werribee and Wyndham Vale, the seat, in varying formations has been retained by Labor for almost 50 years and today holds a strong margin of 10 per cent.
If the Liberal Party can make a decent dent in that margin, let alone pull off an unlikely win, it could make Battin’s neighbours on the other side of the city into big targets.
